第196期

广外经贸论坛：

Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty

一、讲座题目：Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty

二、讲座时间：2024年12月6日（星期五）10:00-11:30

三、讲座地点：广东外语外贸大学大学城校区院系办公楼301会议室

四、主讲人：余 智  副教授，北京师范大学-香港浸会大学联合国际学院      

  主持人：田云华  副教授，广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

五、主讲内容简介

We examine the role of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in shaping the import decisions of firms. In a model where firms must incur sunk costs to adopt new imported varieties of an input, a reduction in TPU for a given input increases imports of that input (a substitution effect) and possibly other inputs (a scale effect). We explore this in the context of China’s accession to the WTO, which bound China’s tariffs. We find that, controlling for current tariffs, the threat of reversion to past high tariffs reduces imports, but much less so after WTO accession, consistent with lower TPU. The current-tariff trade elasticity also increases after WTO entry, reflecting a greater perceived permanence of current tariffs. We find evidence of both substitution and scale effects for imports, and post accession, firms were more likely to adopt products previously subject to higher tariff risk.

六、主讲人简介

Zhi YU is an Associate Professor of Economics at the Beijing Normal University – Hong Kong Baptist University (BNU-HKBU) United International College (UIC). He is also a Research Associate at China’s National Development Bank, China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone Research Center, and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He received his PhD in Economics from Georgetown University (U.S.) and PhD in Finance from Renmin University of China. Before he joined UIC, he worked at Renmin University of China, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and National Commission of Development and Planning of China. He also had part-time work experiences at the U.S. Department of Commerce, International Monetary Fund, Georgetown University (U.S.), and the University of Western Ontario (Canada). His research focuses on international economics. He has published serval academic papers at the Journal of International Economics, in addition to his Chinese publications at International Economic Review, International Trade Issues, Recent Developments in Economics, etc. His policy comments were appeared in reputed media including CCTV Network (Mainland China), China Business Network (Mainland China), South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, China), Associated Press (U.S.), New York Times (U.S.), Financial Times – Chinese (U.K.), Union Morning Post (Singapore), etc.                     

经济贸易学院

2024年12月3日