第187讲

广外经贸论坛：

贸易制裁的公共效应：来自俄摩葡萄酒禁运的证据

一、讲座题目：贸易制裁的公共效应：来自俄摩葡萄酒禁运的证据

二、讲座时间：2023年12月28日（星期四）15:00-16:30

三、讲座地点：广东外语外贸大学大学城校区院系办公楼366会议室

四、主讲人：Denis Ivanov 深圳北理莫斯科大学，俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学，教授         

  主持人：宋晖 广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院经济系系主任，讲师

五、主讲人简介：

任职深圳北理莫斯科大学及俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学，曾在Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization， The Journal of Economic History， European Journal of Political Economy等知名国际期刊上发表过研究成果。

六、主讲内容简介：

Economic, and in particular trade sanctions are frequently used as a foreign policy tool. However, not enough is known on how these sanctions affect popular opinion: do people blame their government for the suffering inflicted by sanctions, or they ‘rally round the flag’ in defiance of foreign attempts to influence actions of their governments? Research of this problem is particularly exacerbated by the fact that sanctions are typically imposed on countries lacking reliable voting and public opinion data. In this paper, I study a case of Russia imposing trade sanctions on a democratic post-Soviet country. In 2006, Russia, the single most important importer of Moldovan wines, banned import of the product. This move has been widely perceived as an attempt to punish Moldovan government for its increasingly pro-European course. Combining data from the national and local elections results by almost nine hundred Moldovan communes since 1994 and the governmental register of wine regions, I show that, following the embargo, vote share or the Party of Communists, the major pro-Russian political force in Moldova at the time, decreased by 2 percentage points in wine-producing communes. This implies that the wine embargo was not efficient in bolstering pro-Russian political forces in Moldova. The effect was driven mostly by communes with the highest share of the ethnic majority, thus providing suggestive evidence in favor of the ‘rally round the flag’ hypothesis.

经济贸易学院

2023年12月26日